Central American and Caribbean Workshop on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability of the Mid-Summer Drought

The objective of the workshop is to strengthen the capacities of the national hydro-meteorological agencies in Central America and the Caribbean, and of the participants in general, to strengthen the understanding of the mid-summer drought characteristics (e.g., onset, demise and duration), the physical mechanisms involved and of the potential for prediction of the Canícula using the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal modelling framework.

Hydro-meteorological institutes around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to produce and deliver skillful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme events at sub-seasonal (20-90 days) to seasonal (~3-9 months) timescale. Improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions, assessing their skill and uncertainty, and exploring ways to communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges. The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) WWRP/WCRP joint project (http://s2sprediction.net) is embracing all these challenges and, to promote this research, has created a new database with a set of multi-model S2S reforecasts and forecasts freely available.

The availability of S2S climate services is key for many managing decisions in agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, energy and health. Due to its relevance, there is a huge interest in Central American and Caribbean national hydro-meteorological agencies to acquire the necessary knowledge and tools to start producing reliable products at this timescale.
In particular, the mid-summer drought, or Canícula, present in several locations of Central America and the Caribbean basin is of paramount importance for water and food security, and information on its occurrence, onset and demise is required by decision-makers in multiple sectors. The mid-summer drought is a phenomenon that occurs typically in July-August, but its characteristics (e.g., duration) are modulated by the independent or joint effect of climate drivers like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

To advance the understanding of the S2S physical mechanisms and sources of predictability related to the mid-summer drought characteristics, a targeted workshop is needed to strengthen capacities to address the forecasting potential of the mid-summer drought. The participants will be exposed to different tools to monitor and analyze canícula’s characteristics, and to assess its S2S predictability and skill. The workshop is designed to have a strong component (approx. 70%) of practical sessions and hands-on exercises. The classes will be given in both English and Spanish.
The workshop is co-organized by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP), and funded with support from the Flanders UNESCO Trust Fund and the Spanish Cooperation (AECID) through the Centre for Capacity Building in Antigua, Guatemala.