COVID-19 is a serious threat to aid to education recovery

Just as a sense of optimism was returning, the COVID-19 pandemic hit – the second major disruption to global development in a dozen years. A recession, with detrimental effects on public revenue-raising capacity and budget allocations, is inevitable. In advanced economies, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 8% in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. Even if we assume that education does not become a lower priority in total aid, squeezed budgets could translate into a fall for aid to education of up to US$2 billion by 2022. It may be six years until 2018 levels are reached again.

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