The Futures of Education

Our world is at a unique juncture in history, characterised by increasingly uncertain and complex trajectories shifting at an unprecedented speed. These sociological, ecological and technological trends are changing education systems, which need to adapt. Yet, no trend is destiny, and education has the most transformational potential to shape just and sustainable futures. UNESCO generates ideas, initiates public debate, and inspires research and action to renew education. This work aims to build a new social contract for education, grounded on principles of human rights, social justice, human dignity and cultural diversity. It unequivocally affirms education as a public endeavour and a common good.

Summary of the Report

The International Commission

In 2019 UNESCO Director–General convened an independent International Commission to work under the leadership of the President of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, H.E. President Sahle-Work Zewde, and develop a global report on the Futures of Education. The commission was charged with carefully considering inputs received through the different consultation processes and ensuring that this collective intelligence was reflected in the global report and other knowledge products connected with the initiative.

No trend is destiny...Multiple alternative futures are possible... A new social contract for education needs to allow us to think differently about learning and the relationships between students, teachers, knowledge, and the world.

International Commission on the Futures of Education 2021 ReportSource

Our thematic research priorities

Digital learning futures
Rethinking knowledge and research
Renewing the social contract for education

Sustainable development challenges and the role of education

Our foresight work, looking towards 2050, envisions possible futures in which education shapes a better world. Our starting point is observation of the multiple, interlocking challenges the world currently faces and how to renew learning and knowledge to steer policies and practices along more sustainable pathways.The challenges are great. But there are reasons for optimism, no trend is destiny.

Our work responds to the call of the International Commission on the Futures of Education to guide a new research agenda for the futures of education. This research agenda is wide-ranging and multifaceted as a future-oriented, planet-wide learning process on our futures together. It draws from diverse forms of knowledge and perspectives, and from a conceptual framework that sees insights from diverse sources as complementary rather than exclusionary and adversarial.

Reimagining cover white background
Changing demographics
  • The global population is projected to reach a peak at around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s, nearly double the global population of 1990 (5.3 billion)
  • There will be an estimated 170 million displaced people by 2050, equivalent to 2.3% of the global population
  • Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be home to some 1/3 of the global population by 2050

"A new social contract for education requires renewed commitment to global collaboration in support of education as a common good, premised on more just and equitable cooperation among state and non-state actors. Beyond North-South flows of aid to education, the generation of knowledge and evidence through South-South and triangular cooperation must be strengthened."

 

No trends is destiny population FoE
Aging population
  • The number of persons aged 65 years or older worldwide is expected to double over the next three decades, reaching 1.6 billion in 2050 (16% of global population)

"Human longevity may also increase and perhaps with it, at least for some, the extension of the work period of life. If older people can remain active and engaged, they will enrich society and the economy through their skills and experience."

Aging population FoE
Planetary crisis
  • Global temperatures are expected to increase 2.7 degrees by 2100, leading to devastating global consequences
  • Humans currently use as as many ecological resources as is we lived on 1.75 Earths

"The planet is in peril (...) Here children and youth already lead the way, calling for meaningful action and delivering a harsh rebuke to those who refuse to face the urgency of the situation. (...) One  of  the  best  strategies  to  prepare  for  green  economies  and  a  carbon-neutral  future  is  to  ensure  qualifications, programmes and curricula deliver ‘green skills’, be they for newly emerging occupations and sectors or for those sectors undergoing transformation for the low-carbon economy."

 

No trend is destiny
Democratic backsliding
  • Global freedom has been declining for more than 15 years 

"There has been a flourishing of increasingly active citizen participation and activism that is challenging discrimination and injustice worldwide (...) In educational content, methods and policy, we should promote active citizenship and democratic participation."

 

No trend is destiny freedom FoE
Changing lifelong education needs
  • There will be an estimated 380 million higher education students by 2030, up from roughly 220 million students were enrolled in formal post-secondary education in 2021

"Future policy agendas for higher education will need to embrace all levels of education and better account for non-traditional educational trajectories and pathways. Recognizing the interconnectedness of different levels and types of education, speaks to the need for a sector-wide, lifelong learning approach towards the future development of higher education."

Lifelong learning needs
Technological disruption
  • Less than 10% of school and universities have guidance on educational uses of AI

"The challenge of creating decent human-centered work is about to get much harder as Artificial Intelligence (AI), automation and structural transformations remake employment landscapes around the globe. At the same time, more people and communities are recognizing the value of care work and the multiple ways that economic security needs to be provisioned.”

technology no trend is destiny FoE
Disinformation
  • Fake news travel 6 times faster than true stories via Twitter - such disinformation undermines a shared perception of truth and reality

"Digital technologies, tools and platforms can be bent in the direction of supporting human rights, enhancing human capabilities, and facilitating collective action in the directions of peace, justice, and sustainability (...) A primary educational challenge is to equip people with tools for making sense of the oceans of information that are just a few swipes or keystrokes away."

No trend is destiny disinformation FoE
Uncertain future of work
  • Employers anticipate a structural “labour market churn” (or disruption) of 23% of jobs in the next five years, resulting in a net decrease of 2% of current employment due to environmental, technological and economic trends.

"Underemployment, the inability to find work that matches one’s aspirations, skillset and capabilities, is a persistent and growing global problem, even among university graduates in many of the world’s wealthiest countries. This mismatch is combustible: social scientists have shown that a highly educated population unable to apply its skills and competencies in decent work, leads to discontent, agitation and sometime sparks political and civil strife... Learning must be relevant to the world of work. Young people need strong support upon educational completion to be integrated into labour markets and contribute to their communities and societies according to their potential."

 

No trend is destiny work FoE
Sources
  • CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: Global population in 2080s: 10.4 billion (UNDESA World Population Prospects, 2022) /Africa 1/3 population (UNDESA World Population Prospects, 2022)
  • AGING POPULATIONS: 1.6 billion people over 65 in 2050 (UNDESA World Social Report, 2023)
  • PLANETARY CRISIS: Humans use 1.75 Earths (Global Footprint Network) / Global temperatures to increase 2.7 degrees by 2100 (UNFCCC Synthesis Report, 2021)
  • DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING: Global freedom has been declining for more than 15 years (Freedom House Freedom in the World report, 2023)

* All figures correct as of 2023.

No trends is destiny
Sources (continued)
  • TECHNOLOGY: Less that 10% of school and universities have guidance on educational uses of AI (UNESCO study, 2023)
  • DISINFORMATION: Fake news travel 6 times faster than true stories via Twitter (MIT study, 2018)
  • UNCERTAIN FUTURE OF WORK: Net decrease of 2% of employment over next 5 years (WEF Futures of Work report, 2023) 
  • CHANGING LIFELONG EDUCATION APPROACHES: 320 million students by 2030 (World Bank blog, 2022)

* All figures correct as of 2023.

No trends is destiny

The Report of the International Commission on the Futures of Education

Our work is grounded in the principles of the 2021 report “Reimagining Our Futures Together: A New Social Contract for Education” and in the report’s call for action to consolidate global solidarity and international cooperation in education, as well as strengthen the global research agenda to reinforce our capacities to anticipate future change.

Futures of Education Report

The third in a series of major visioning exercises for education

Reimagining our future together: a new social contract for education is the third in a series of UNESCO-led once-a-generation foresight and visioning exercises, conducted at key moments of historical transition. 

In 1972, the Learning to Be: the world of education today and tomorrow report already warned of the risks of inequalities, and emphasized the need for the continued expansion of education, for education throughout life and for building a learning society.

This was followed by the 1996 Learning: The treasure within report that proposed an integrated vision of education around four pillars: learning to be, learning to know, learning to do, and learning to live together in a lifelong perspective.

Publications FoE

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